Cheltenham Festival 2010 Preview

The Cheltenham Festival meeting begins with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, a race which the Irish have taken 6 times in the last 8 runnings of the race. Those Euro-waving, Guinness-swilling fellows will be confident of getting off to another winning start when Cousin Vinny, winner of last seasons Champion Bumper at this meeting, lines up at a best priced 5/2 (Ladbrokes and Paddy Power).

Those odds are almost certain to go into freefall when the Irish descend on the betting ring on Tuesday afternoon so if you are planning to back Cousin Vinny, get on now!

The Championship race on the 1st day is the Champion Hurdle in which Nicky Henderson’s Binocular is as short as 5/4 to go one better than he did in last years Supreme Novices’ when he was just touched off by Captain Cee Bee who misses the Festival through injury.

That race is the only time Binocular has tasted defeat over hurdles and he is such a short price for good reason – no horse has got with 3 lengths of him in his 3 races this season.

There is no such thing as a certainty in racing though, and this old cliché is especially true at the Festival. There is some terrific each way value lurking in the race somewhere and all we have to do is find it.

Former Cheltenham winners have an enviable record of following up at subsequent Festivals and are well represented here with Crack Away Jack (Fred Winter Novice Hurdlel 2008), Katchit (Triumph Hurdle 2007 and Champion Hurdle 2008), Sublimity (2007 Champion Hurdle), Brave Inca (2004 Surpreme Novices and 2006 Champion Hurdle), Ebaziyan (2007 Supreme Novice Hurdle), Hardy Eustace (2003 RSA Hurdle and 2004 Champion Hurdle) and Whiteoak, winner of the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle at last year’s meeting and it is the last named who is the least exposed and therefore most open to improvement . Trained by the son of Aintree legend Ginger McCain, Donald, Whiteoak is a best priced 18/1 (Corals) and is rated a decent e/w bet after a pleasing return to the track at Wincanton last month.

The forgotten horse of the race is undoubtedly Jered, officially the champion novice hurdler in 2008 in front of Captain Cee Bee and Binocular after easy wins at Fairyhouse and Punchestown. Jered can be forgiven his last run when he was beaten on bottomless ground and is well worth an each way punt at a best priced 40/1 (Sportingbet).

Whiteoak and Jered can also be backed in the ‘without Binocular’ market where you bet as if the favourite is not running – you finish 2nd to Binocular you win, you finish 4th with Binocular in the frame, your e/w bet is a winner. The 12/1 offered by Paddy Power for Whiteoak and the 25/1 (Sportingbet) for Jered both represent good e/w value.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is another race where there are extremely favourable each way terms due to the short odds of the favourite and highest rated chaser in training, Master Minded, who is as short as ¼ for the race.

Well Chief is the most interesting runner bar the favourite, and has an absence of some 698 days to overcome. Back in February of 2007 Well Chief overcame a similar time away from the track in 658 days when beating a high class field of 2m chasers in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury.

Either keep your betting powder dry and simply watch the race and hope for another jumping master class from the favourite or invest small stakes each way on Well Chief at the best available odds of 16/1 (Hills and Lads).

The World Hurdle on Thursday throws together 3 main challengers with very contrasting profiles.

French raider Kasbah Bliss is a best priced 5/4 to go one better than in last year’s renewal when 2nd to 3 times World Hurdle winner Inglis Drever. Kasbah Bliss is that oh-so-rare commodity in racing – a genuine Group 1 performer on the flat (he finished in front of Yeats at Longchamp last year) who is equally good over jumps. Kasbah Bliss pings his hurdles as quickly and as fluently as any National Hunt bred animal in training today.

While Kasbah Bliss is unlikely ever to tackle the bigger obstacles, his 2 main rivals could well end up facing each other in a Gold Cup one day. Big Buck’s (whoever put that errant apostrophe in there did it just to spite me I’m sure) may well have won this seasons Henessey Gold Cup had he been given a more patient ride and Punchestown who according to his recently retired ex jockey, Mick Fitzgerald, WILL win a Gold Cup one day; bold words indeed.

Both will have to run above themselves to beat Kasbah Bliss though who, Master Minded apart, looks the baker of the meeting. Willie Mullins’ Shakervilz also jumps hurdles beautifully and at 80/1 with Sportingbet and bigger on the exchanges has an each way squeak if any of the big 3 underperforms.

The Gold Cup at 3.20 on Friday takes on a different complexion to the race last year even though the main protagonists are the same. Coming into the 2008 renewal both Kauto Star and Denman were seemingly in tip-top form while this year Denman has only been seen out once after his heart scare when he looked a shadow of his former self when well beaten at Kempton. That course was never going to suit the relentless galloping style of Denman but even so he was hugely disappointing.

Kauto Star comes into the race a fresher horse than last year and that should help his case but he was well beaten by Denman last year and he looks vulnerable again this year.

Not many horses are equally suited to the different tests that Kempton and Cheltenham provide, Denman being a good example, and Kauto Star has put up his 2 best ever performances at the Surrey venue. Take away his victory in the King George VI chase on Boxing Day and his price would be closer to 5/1 than 5/2.

Neptune Collonges has impressed in Ireland this season and is expected to run a big race but his Cheltenham record of no wins from 5 attempts is enough to put me off and the surprise package could be the Queen’s horse, Barbershop, at a general price of 14/1. Barbershop showed much improved from when stepped up to 3 miles last time and is the one horse in the race who is definitely on an upwards curve. His trainer Nicky Henderson is in good form and his jockey, Barry Geraghty has a perfect big race temperament to give the Queen her first Cheltenham Festival winner.

Good Luck from James Randall Doughty

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