GOLD CUP ARTICLE FROM BETDIRECT'S CHARLIE McCANN
The build up to next month's Cheltenham Gold Cup has revolved,
almost exclusively, around one horse Paul Nicholls' brilliant
Kauto Star. Well what camp are you in?
Camp A: He's the best horse in the race by a country mile and
odds against looks generous given he is so far ahead of his rivals
on the form book or
Camp B: He fell on his only previous start at Cheltenham, has
made serious errors on his last two starts and has yet to prove
he has the necessary stamina for the three and a quarter mile
trip.
Long range weather forecasters suggest that the beginning of
March will continue to see unsettled weather and there is always
the possibility of connections switching to the Queen Mother Champion
Chase if the race looks like being run in a bog, but there is
only one Gold Cup and I would be amazed if Kauto Star did not
take up the Gold Cup option. Paul Nicholls at a recent press day
was quick too point out how the horse is, fundamentally, a good
jumper of a fence prone only to a lack of concentration. His Haydock
Park success in the Betfair Chase earlier in the campaign was
as good a performance as I have ever witnessed from a Chaser,
and his subsequent Grade 1 successes in the Tingle Creek and the
King George marked him down as a Champion in waiting.
That said Chasing greats such as Pendil and Wayward Lad failed
to land the Gold Cup and God alone knows how Desert Orchard landed
the most prestigious prize in jump racing. Trainer Paul Nicholls
insists that the fences at Cheltenham are not as fierce as they
once were, and that may well be the case, but will he get away
with a similar mistake to the ones that blighted his Kempton and
Newbury (Aon Chase) successes if the petrol gauge is on its last
bar?
Granted good ground the main rival to Kauto Star must be the
Gold Cup winner of 2006 War Of Attrition. He gave the outside
up to no one when landing the Blue Riband event last year and
trainer Mouse Morris has taken a similar path to last year in
that he will go the the Festival fresh, having not raced since
being asked to handle desperate conditions at Leopardstown over
Xmas. It didn't look a vintage Gold Cup last year, but as an eight-year-old
he ought to be nearing his physical peak and his wonderful jumping
will be a great asset .....granted good ground. He remains a 9/2
shot with BetDirect and is likely to go off 7/2 on good ground
and 7/1 on soft ground. Any weather forecasters out there?
Exotic Dancer has been one of the stars of the season, having
landed three competitive events, all at Cheltenham, so far this
term. The only horses to have lowered the colours of Jonjo O'Neill's
charge in five starts this season are the enigmatic Turpin Green
in an unsatisfactory three-runner Carlisle event, and Kauto Star
in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. He will have to improve
again to make the frame, but you get the impression his progression
has surprised even Jonjo and Barry Simpson (owner Sir Robert Ogden's
racing manager), but he will have to put up a career best to reach
the three.
Whereas War Of Attrition requires good ground Robert Alner's
The Listener needs soft or heavy ground to be seen at his best.
A fluent winner from Beef Or Salmon in the Lexus Chase (War Of
Attrition behind) over Xmas was followed by a 3/4l defeat at the
hands of Beef Or Salmon in the Irish Hennessy when he looked all
over the winner before being run out of it close home. At 10/1
with BetDirect at present he is likely to go off at single figures
if there is soft in the going description come the day of the
race, but he would be inconvenienced if the ground dried out appreciably.
State Of Play (11/1) is the other potential improver in the race,
having not been seen on the track since landing the Hennessy at
Newbury back in November. Much has been written about the well-being
of the Evan Williams horses in recent weeks, but the Welsh handler
is sure to have the horse at concert pitch for the race, if there
is nothing ailing his string. It is only two starts ago that he
was landing an Aintree handicap off 128, but he made the transition
to leading handicapper effectively at the Berkshire track. Can
he make the switch to Gold Cup winner as seamlessly?
The Gold Cup remains the most prestigious prize in jump racing
(the Grand National remains the greatest race). At the beginning
of this preview I asked if you were for or against the jolly old
favourite Kauto Star. Have you decided yet? Only two and a bit
weeks to go now.
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