The Cheltenham Gold Cup Betting Spotlight - Matthew Snowie

The Leading Contenders

Kauto Star: The winner of the race two seasons ago bids to become the first horse in history to win back the Gold Cup and on the face of it he has as good a chance as any that have attempted the feat. He was taken to Down Royal for what turned out to be a glorified exercise gallop for his seasonal reappearance before exiting spectacularly at the last in Haydock’s Betfair Chase, after which more than a few pundits wrote off the former champ, which he proved was completely not the case with an imperious display to win his third King George at Kempton over Christmas. Paul Nicholls has been at pains to keep the horse fresh since that race and believes that he is the one to beat, but nagging doubts remain. The image of last years race is still fresh and he was well and truly put in his place by Denman’s remorseless galloping; while forecast better ground will be of assistance his record going left handed since his 2007 Gold Cup win reads: 2122U. That’s an unimpressive 1 win from 5 starts and it appears punters are equally unconvinced as he, at time of writing, is an uneasy 2/1 favourite having been as short as 5/4 after Denman’s eclipse.

Denman: Brought down the house 12 months ago and remains the pivot horse of the entire race as a return to that sort of form would see him near impossible to beat, but things have changed since then. The horse was diagnosed with a heart issue which has been treated but looked a mere shadow of the horse of last year as he was easily brushed aside by upstart Madison Du Berlais, a performance that has unsurprisingly seen him drift and frankly not stop drifting ever since. The problem is that if one could be sure that he’s back to his best then the 6/1 or so currently being quoted is probably the best price at this or indeed any other festival but only the very brave and his dyed in the wool supporters would entertain taking it.

Neptune Collonges: The forgotten horse of last years renewal as he put up a career best performance only failing to claim second in the last stride as Kauto Star tied up from the exertion of trying to catch Denman. The question marks that now exist of the big two see this one as many people’s idea of the most solid horse in the race and he’s done very little to dissuade any one from that opinion. It was not hard to be taken with his performance last time out at Leopardstown and he’s clearly one for the shortlist but even taking into account last year, a record of 0 wins from 5 starts at Cheltenham tempers enthusiasm as despite being a 16/1 longshot twelve months ago is now only 5/1 and its hard to think he’s that much better.

Madison Du Berlais: The most improved steeplechaser in training, who has bagged the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and then slayed Denman in the Levy Board Chase at Kempton, a performance that catapulted him to fourth favourite for this race. On the strict interpretation of that Kempton form he is worthy of that spot but there are reasons to believe that probably every other horse in that race ran below form and is another to have yet to taste victory at Cheltenham. He currently possess 5 race record at HQ with a best placing of third in a race far below the standard of this one and its not difficult to look at this horse’s apparent improvement and mark it down as ‘too good to be true’

Exotic Dancer: A perennial bridesmaid in the very top company, has been second in the 2007 Gold Cup and two King Georges all behind Kauto Star but he will be better prepared for this race then last year when a training setback left him undercooked for the big day and trailed in a well beaten 5th. He also showed he was not a back number with his first victory for 18 months in Ireland over Christmas and rather like his great rival Kauto Star has been kept fresh for this race. There will be worse 10/1 shots at this years festival but is hard to say he’s getting better at his age and the fear is that his chance to actually win the race might have passed him by.

Albertas Run: Last years RSA Chase winner has been rather more miss than hit during this campaign, but did post a huge effort over Christmas in the King George when splitting Kauto Star and Ryanair Chase favourite Voy Por Ustedes. The horse seems to be very ground dependant as his only decent effort this term was on good ground and if the predictions are right he may well get his favoured conditions and in direct contrast to some is a perfect 2 wins from 2 races over Cheltenham’s fences; is as likely to blow out as to run a huge race but does have a few less questions to answer that some at shorter prices.

Conclusion: There are other horses not with out a chance notably, the Queen’s Barbers Shop, Hennessy Gold Cup runner up Air Force One, along with former festival winners Star de Mohaison and War of Attrition but there is some serious depth to this race and many more doubts about the big 2 than there where last year. So there is an opportunity to look at some of the more specialised markets such as betting without various horses. The horse that should be opposed is Madison Du Berlais who doesn’t come out of the Hennessy as a much better horse than Air Force One who is over three times the price, he could very easily be beaten a long way. The horse to back is Albertas Run, who has a great record at the track and could run a massive race granted his favoured conditions

Betting Advice:

LAY for a place - Madison Du Berlais
BACK @ 16/1 (Each Way) Albertas Run
BACK @ 6/1 (W/OUT Big 3) Albertas Run.