Sequels rarely live up to the original – Teen Wolf Too, anyone? – and the portents are not good for Denman vs Kauto Star II in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Last year it was billed as the chasing heavyweight clash of the season, and Denman’s powerhouse display – and seven length defeat of his stable companion – was nothing short of sensational. FREE CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP BETS
Going into that race, it appeared a straight forward choice for punters: which horse wins out of Denman or Kauto Star, and so it proved. This year’s Gold Cup serves up a far more puzzling conundrum, not least whether there are adequate grounds to oppose both of the star Nicholls chasers.
The first question is, whether Denman has any chance at all of defending his crown. Last year’s Gold Cup was a gruelling affair, and the punishing gallop he set that day may have left a permanent mark on him.
Afterwards he was diagnosed as having a heart murmur, and Nicholls has faced a tough task nursing the horse back to full health. He returned to the track at Kempton last month and looked a shadow of the horse he was last season, beaten out of sight by the Hennessy winner Madison Du Berlais, a horse who on official ratings was supposedly 23lbs his inferior. Sure, he may have needed the run and the track didn’t suit but it’s still asking a hell of a lot for Denman to return to the lofty peak he scaled in March 2008.
His stable companion and 2007 Gold Cup winner Kauto Star was imperious in winning a third King George at Kempton, but had looked vulnerable at Haydock prior to that, sprawling at the last fence and unseating Sam Thomas when looking held at the time. He remains favourite for this year’s race but a best price of 15-8 with William Hill doesn’t appeal for numerous reasons.
There remains a nagging doubt that he is not as good as he was when he won in 2007 and this year’s Gold Cup field looks noticeably stronger. He continues to take the odd chance at his fences, and also against him are a couple of damning stats: no horse in the history of the race has won the Gold Cup, lost the next year, and come back to regain it. And no horse since Bregawn in 1983 has won the race after being placed in the race the previous year.
Madison Du Berlais is a much improved chaser this season and it would be dangerous to under-estimate his comprehensive, 23-length defeat of Denman. He jumped really well that day and is firmly in the up-and-coming category. The only downside is that the majority of his wins have come on flat tracks.
And if he finds a place on the shortlist then so should Charlie Mann’s Air Force One. He was conceding Madison Du Berlais 3lbs when he was beaten three lengths by him in the Hennessy Gold Cup. Crucially that day, he didn’t jump the last two fences cleanly and if he had he would have finished a lot closer to the winner. He will be three pounds better off at the weights in the Gold Cup and if the ground dries up this would be a further boost to his chance as he appears to prefer goodish ground. There would be a doubt over him staying the trip on soft ground but it’s worth taking a gamble on the ground drying out during the week as he represents great each way value at 25-1.
Second favourite with the bookies currently is Neptune Collonges. He finished third behind Denman in the race last year and at the age of eight could be reaching his peak. He won well at Leopardstown last month, beating the Welsh National winner Notre Pere comfortably by five lengths, but it’s the race he ran in prior to that, the Lexus Chase, that Gold Cup punters want to pay more attention to.
He fell at the second last that day while still travelling well enough. It’s a matter of conjecture but moving even better, at least to this trained eye, was Exotic Dancer who went on to win impressively by 20 lengths. It is worth remembering Exotic Dancer was only beaten two and a half lengths by Kauto Star in the 2007 Cheltenham Gold Cup, and while he wasn’t at his best last season, Jonjo O’Neill’s star chaser, who has been campaigned lightly this year, looks to be reaching his peak at the age of nine, and will have the added assistance of jump racing’s winning-most jockey, A P McCoy, in the saddle.
Exotic Dancer clearly loves Cheltenham having won there four times. He is equally at home on good ground or softer, and appears to have fewer question marks alongside him compared to the four horses currently quoted above him in the betting.
Nicky Henderson’s Barbers Shop was beaten fair and square by Nigel Twiston Davies’ Imperial Commander earlier in the season in the Paddy Power Gold Cup conceding him three pounds. There have to be major question marks over these two up-and-coming chasers staying the Gold Cup trip in a race run at championship pace, with Imperial Commander more likely to take up an engagement in the Ryanair Chase.
Notre Pere will be a lively outsider to consider if the ground turns heavy and it becomes a real slog – ditto Miko De Beauchene – while good ground could see last year’s SunAlliance Chase winner Albertas Run get in the shake up though his overall profile doesn’t convince as a potential Gold Cup winner.
In conclusion, this year’s Gold Cup may come a year too soon for the highly promising Air Force One, and Madison Du Berlais’ lack of form on undulating tracks like Cheltenham tempers enthusiasm. With strong enough reason to oppose all three Nicholls chasers, Exotic Dancer has to be the most solid proposition at 12-1 each-way with William Hill and SportingBet, while Air Force One (25-1, most firms) and Madison Du Berlais (8-1, most firms) both merit smaller investments each-way. Preview by Rob Furber
* As a safety net, punters are advised to seek NRNB prices |
UKfrenzy Associates © 2000 - 2010 All Rights Reserved. We are Watching Closely
Bet with 
Follow on Twitter