As you cast your eyes over the list of forty odd runners intending to go to post for this years renewal of the Grand National steeplechase, it is clear that in order to select the winner you have to rule out the chances of many others.
So this year I advise you to view the card slightly differently, and read from the bottom of the list to the top. If you must read down the card, start at L’Ami and rule out anything higher in the weights than the French raider. Since 1990 no horse has carried more than 11 st 1lb to victory. This cuts fifteen hopefuls from the list including fancied runners such as Slim Pickings, Simon and Tony McCoys mount Butlers Cabin (hopefully next year Tony).
Starting with possible runner Dun Doire, trained in Ireland by the king of handicap coups Tony Martin. If the former Cheltenham winner makes the line up he would have a decent chance, particularly if there is any softening of the ground.
Age may have caught up with last years fourth Philson Run. Amberleigh House in 2004 and Royal Athlete in 1995 were both victorious as twelve year olds, but you can give Ginger McCain and Jenny Pitman credit for great training performances. In recent years horses aged between nine and eleven have fared best. If we discount any runner outside this range we can forget the short priced favourite Cloudy Lane and long time ante post favourite Snowy Morning, along with Mon Mome and outsiders: Nadover, Milan Deux Mille, Bob Hall, No Full and Joacci.
That leaves you about half the field still to pick from. Next up is Black Apalachi who has not won a race for two years and is more at home with plenty of cut in the ground. Next comes Kelami but Francois Doumen’s charge is another who has failed to trouble the judge for some time. A similar appraisal can be applied to the stables other runner L’Ami, without a victory since a Warwick novice chase in 2005. Idle Talk has a similar profile and is ruled out along with Tumbling Dice and Contraband.
First on the short-list unless Dun Doire gets in is the David Pipe trained Comply Or Die. Well off at the weights and available at 40’s in February, this winner over four miles plus last time out is currently trading at a quarter of those odds. Backbeat is added to the short-list at a nice price. Nauton Brook was pulled up in last year’s race and is easily ruled out. The marathon trip of the National may find out Cornish Set, along with King Johns Castle and Breeze. D’Argent with good recent form and market support makes the short-list. Cornish Rebel may struggle in this type of company. A faller at the first last year when sent off a co-favourite Point Barrow seems a shadow of the horse this year and is passed over. Last years second McKelvey has shown in little in two of outings this season and fails to make the short-list which is completed by Graham Wylie’s Bewleys Berry.
My advice for the Grand National is to enjoy this magnificent spectacle of a race. Shop around and take advantage of the bookmaker’s free bets and concessions such as guaranteed odds, and getting paid on fifth place for each way bets.
Selections
Win: Comply Or Die
Each Way : Dun Doire |
