| No. |
Colours |
Form |
Grand
National Horses |
|
|
Age |
Weights |
Trainers |
Jockey |
Rate |
| 1 |
01-3244 |
 |
Madison Du Berlais (FR) |
50/1 |
|
9 |
11-10 |
D Pipe |
Tom Scudamore |
162 |
| 2 |
1-P3463 |
 |
Mon Mome (FR) |
10/1 |
|
10 |
11-7 |
Miss V Williams |
Aidan Coleman |
148 |
| 3 |
151U-02 |
 |
Black Apalachi (IRE) |
12/1 |
|
11 |
11-6 |
D T Hughes |
|
155 |
| 4 |
5-50030 |
 |
Joe Lively (IRE) |
66/1 |
|
11 |
11-6 |
C L Tizzard |
|
155 |
| 5 |
211501 |
 |
Vic Venturi (IRE) |
16/1 |
|
10 |
11-6 |
D T Hughes |
|
154 |
| 6 |
P002-00 |
 |
Comply Or Die (IRE) |
20/1 |
|
11 |
11-5 |
D Pipe |
|
153 |
| 7 |
01-423P |
 |
Don't Push It (IRE) |
SP |
|
10 |
11-5 |
Jonjo O'Neill |
|
153 |
| 8 |
U2404P |
 |
Made In Taipan (IRE) |
100/1 |
|
8 |
11-4 |
Thomas Mullins |
|
149 |
| 9 |
1-03520 |
 |
Niche Market (IRE) |
16/1 |
|
9 |
11-4 |
R H Buckler |
|
152 |
| 10 |
121-210 |
 |
Tricky Trickster (IRE) |
16/1 |
|
7 |
11-4 |
P F Nicholls |
|
152 |
| 11 |
FU-3644 |
 |
Cloudy Lane |
40/1 |
|
10 |
11-3 |
D McCain Jnr |
|
151 |
| 12 |
UPP/21P |
 |
Dream Alliance |
33/1 |
|
9 |
11-3 |
P J Hobbs |
|
151 |
| 13 |
1P00-60 |
 |
Nozic (FR) |
66/1 |
|
9 |
11-3 |
P F Nicholls |
|
- |
| 14 |
53-2050 |
 |
My Will (FR) |
33/1 |
|
10 |
11-2 |
P F Nicholls |
|
150 |
| 15 |
3606-4F |
 |
Pablo Du Charmil (FR) |
100/1 |
|
9 |
11-2 |
D Pipe |
|
- |
| 16 |
112313 |
 |
Backstage (FR) |
20/1 |
|
8 |
11-0 |
G Elliott |
|
- |
| 17 |
6-51110 |
 |
Ballyholland (IRE) |
25/1 |
|
9 |
11-0 |
C A McBratney |
|
145 |
| 18 |
P-1P1PP |
 |
Beat The Boys (IRE) |
80/1 |
|
9 |
11-0 |
N A Twiston-Davies |
|
146 |
| 19 |
0-000F0 |
 |
Preists Leap (IRE) |
SP |
|
10 |
11-0 |
Thomas O'leary |
|
148 |
| 20 |
14F-016 |
 |
Can't Buy Time (IRE) |
SP |
|
8 |
10-13 |
Jonjo O'Neill |
|
147 |
| 21 |
103223 |
 |
Snowy Morning (IRE) |
18/1 |
|
10 |
10-13 |
W P Mullins |
|
147 |
| 22 |
136-2U1 |
 |
Big Fella Thanks |
7/1 |
|
8 |
10-12 |
P F Nicholls |
|
146 |
| 23 |
3301-00 |
 |
Character Building (IRE) |
20/1 |
|
10 |
10-11 |
J J Quinn |
|
145 |
| 24 |
60/144-P |
 |
State of Play |
20/1 |
|
10 |
10-11 |
Evan Williams |
|
- |
| 25 |
0-12100 |
 |
Ellerslie George (IRE) |
66/1 |
|
10 |
10-10 |
Nick Mitchell |
|
144 |
| 26 |
4P1540 |
 |
Ballyfitz |
66/1 |
|
10 |
10-9 |
N A Twiston-Davies |
|
139 |
| 27 |
43545U |
 |
Conna Castle (IRE) |
100/1 |
|
11 |
10-9 |
J J Mangan |
|
143 |
| 28 |
2P5-011 |
 |
Eric's Charm (FR) |
SP |
|
12 |
10-9 |
O Sherwood |
|
143 |
| 29 |
2/0-0000 |
 |
King Johns Castle (IRE) |
33/1 |
|
11 |
10-9 |
A L T Moore |
|
142 |
| 30 |
305460 |
 |
Ollie Magern |
100/1 |
|
12 |
10-9 |
N A Twiston-Davies |
|
141 |
| 31 |
30-30U2 |
 |
Arbor Supreme (IRE) |
14/1 |
|
8 |
10-8 |
W P Mullins |
|
140 |
| 32 |
02P-253 |
 |
Maljimar (IRE) |
33/1 |
|
10 |
10-8 |
Nick Williams |
|
- |
| 33 |
3-02312 |
 |
The Package |
14/1 |
|
7 |
10-7 |
D Pipe |
|
141 |
| 34 |
0-33010 |
 |
Piraya (FR) |
66/1 |
|
7 |
10-7 |
D Pipe |
|
141 |
| 35 |
U01-4U5 |
 |
Irish Raptor (IRE) |
33/1 |
|
11 |
10-7 |
N A Twiston-Davies |
|
- |
| 36 |
P/6220-0 |
 |
Mr Pointment (IRE) |
80/1 |
|
11 |
10-7 |
Paul Murphy |
|
141 |
| 37 |
P6-1420 |
 |
Palypso De Creek (FR) |
50/1 |
|
7 |
10-6 |
C E Longsdon |
|
139 |
| 38 |
035B00 |
 |
Hello Bud (IRE) |
40/1 |
|
12 |
10-6 |
N A Twiston-Davies |
|
137 |
| 39 |
P63/52-P |
 |
Flintoff (USA) |
50/1 |
|
9 |
10-5 |
Miss V Williams |
|
- |
| 40 |
3/32-31P |
 |
Abbeybraney (IRE) |
50/1 |
|
9 |
10-5 |
J Howard Johnson |
|
139 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 41 |
F-26R20 |
 |
Silver Birch (IRE) |
50/1 |
|
13 |
10-5 |
G Elliott |
|
138 |
| 42 |
0PP/05-0 |
 |
Cerium (FR) |
66/1 |
|
9 |
10-5 |
Paul Murphy |
|
133 |
| 43 |
56/33P5 |
 |
Royal Rosa (FR) |
150/1 |
|
11 |
10-5 |
J Howard Johnson |
|
- |
| 44 |
PP462F |
 |
Knowhere (IRE) |
66/1 |
|
12 |
10-4 |
N A Twiston-Davies |
|
140 |
| 45 |
4F1311 |
 |
Whinstone Boy (IRE) |
25/1 |
|
9 |
10-4 |
J J Mangan |
|
- |
| 46 |
25-0560 |
 |
Oodachee |
66/1 |
|
11 |
10-4 |
C F Swan |
|
133 |
| 47 |
P03-402 |
 |
Faasel (IRE) |
50/1 |
|
9 |
10-3 |
D Pipe |
|
135 |
| 48 |
-30011 |
 |
Chief Dan George (IRE) |
25/1 |
|
10 |
10-2 |
James Moffatt |
|
142 |
Review of the Grand National Runners
It’s that time of the year again, when everyone and her granny becomes punter for a day. And by hook or by crook or even by pin everyone wants to get the winner of the world’s greatest steeplechase.
When it comes to picking the winner of this four and half-mile marathon, backers generally fall into several camps. There are those who rake the formbook with a fine toothcomb looking for that all important edge. Then the casual punters look to their daily paper for a tip or two; others simply wanting to join in the fun will get the pin out, shut their eyes and hope horseracing gods are on their side. Then there are the those who look for a name that connects to something in their own life. A popular method of whittling down a field of 40 relatively unknown animals is to pick a story horse. The best and most memorable not to mention emotional example is Aldernati in 1969 ridden to victory by jockey Bob Champion who had won a life-threatening battle against cancer only months before. That story was made into a film called Champion that had grown men crying in the aisles. In 1992 many punters latched onto an out and out stayer who jumped fences for fun called Party Politics. Why? Well there was a General Election campaign going at the time. You can guess the rest…
By whatever method you choose to find the winner though please don’t fall into the trap of believing if it’s in it it’s can win it. This is a myth peculiarly backed up by the fact the winner of the Grand National in run in 1839 was called Lottery. That was then – it’s a lot classier a race these days and most years, out of 40 runners the field can be whittled down to 10 or 11 runners most likely too.
History is often the best guide to the future and in horseracing the Grand National is a solid example of this. In fact, from a trends and stats point of view the Aintree showpiece is arguably the most consistent contest in the racing calendar. Take last year’s winner Comply or Die who cruised home the 7/1 joint favourite. Like 24 of the last 25 victors he was carrying under 11st; like the previous 10 winners he was aged between eight and 12 and had a handicap rating of 139 which fell nicely into 136 to 144 ratings bands from which his 10 predecessors also fell into. Only four horses have humped more than 11st to victory in the past half century. Hedgehunter with 11st 1lbs in 2005, Corbiere 11st 4lbs in 1983, and Grittar 11st 5lbs the year. The fourth horse you may have heard of – Red Rum. Astonishingly, trainer and Aintree legend Ginger McCain’s pride and joy achieved his famous third triumph in the race in 1977 with 11st 8lb on his back. Three years earlier he gained his second victory carrying 12st. Will we see his like again?
Comply or Die lines up again this year bidding to emulate Rummy. A best priced 20/1 he carries 11st 5lb and the weight of history against him. Likewise Silver Birch on 11st – 8lb more than he carried to victory in 2007. Since 1936 Red Rum is the only horse to have won more than once. Many have tried, all have failed.
Eliminating those burdened with 11st plus deletes many of the leading fancies including current 8/1 favourite My Will trained by Paul Nicholls, State of Play (14/1) the Welsh hope, Irish fancies Black Apalachi (16s and likely to get bigger as the rain stays away) and Hear The Echo another 16/1 chance who the Irish Grand National last year. The 11st plus stat also eliminates Butler’s Cabin owned by punting legend JP McManus and one of this year’s potential story horses. He will ridden by champion jockey AP McCoy who only weeks ago famously clocked up his 3,000th winner. He hasn’t won the National but would dearly love too. He carries 11st – one pound above the trends cut off point. If anyone can get one over on history then relentless battler McCoy can. The Mccoy factor could see hom go off favourite.
The anything can win theory is also dispelled by a stat concerning starting price. Concentrate on horses 40/1 or under. Foinavon famously won at a 100/1 in 1967 after a huge pile up at a fence since named after him. Ben Nevis in 1980 and Royal Athlete in 1995 started at 40/1 but all other winners were 33/1 or less.
A very trustworthy stat is the one that says horses who have never won over three miles plus can’t win. It’s true, they don’t. Ideally you want a horse that has won a Listed, Class A or Class 1 race over 3m or more.
The final trend to consider is comes from an area of race analysis that is becomingly increasing popular –pedrigree. Nine of the last 10 winners were Irish bred. The exception, British-bred Red Marauder won in a year when the ground was very heavy and there were only four finishers.
Here are a few horses that may pay to focus on but ultimately it’s up to you. Google the questions you have, do a bit of studying, make your decision then click Bet Now and good luck.
Rambling Minster (12/1) a marathon specialist has won his last two starts and aged 11 is still improving.
Cornish Sett (33/1) ran in this last year finishing eighth and was second in the Welsh equivalent in December.
Himalayan Trail (33/1) not an obvious candidate on recent form but has been running over hurdles to protect his handicap mark. Has the class, stamina –won the Midlands National last year – and pedigree for this as well as a trainer already successful
Parson’s Legacy is a possibility with proven stamina and class. Trainer Philip Hobbs is reported to be very happy with him and he has backed down to 16/1 this week. Goes well fresh.
Darkness, a top staying novice in 2006 on the comeback trail. Targeted at this by shrewd trainer Charlie Egerton. |
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