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Review of the Runners
The favourite for the race is Cloudy Lane and it’s not hard to see why.
Since winning the Kim Muir Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last year, he met terrible luck when brought down when well fancied in last seasons Irish Grand National. Although it would be fair to say he was beaten at the time, it would still have been a good performance for a youngster learning his trade in the big time. A season on and all that battle experience under his young belt, he opened up with a typical fitness-needed performance but has gone on to win all of his next 3 races since. His weight for the National was allotted before his last 2 easy wins and is running in the National 20lb better off than what he would be running if the weights were allotted at the usual declaration stages.
Suffice to say, a horse 20lb in on his best ability has to be strongly fancied. He also has the asset of being able to run in soft conditions which is looking likely. Want more? He is trained by the son of the legendary Ginger McCain and I’m sure Ginger will be giving a few tips out to his son for this one.
Chances: Huge chance at weights. In good form. Great jumper, but yet to prove he can handle a staying test of this magnitude, nor has he jumped the National fences before.
David Pipe’s Comply Or Die looks tough as old boots as he proved when running away with the Eider Chase at Newcastle at the back end of February. It was a right old slog of a race over a very tough 4 miles and what it does do is prove that Comply Or Die will be staying all day in the Grand National. However, the big negative has to be a reappearance after just 42 days. It is very tough for a horse to have 2 massive races such as the Eider and the Grand National in such a short space of time. Form students will love his chances though and he has peaked at the right time. He run a 2 1/2l 2nd to Cloudy lane at Haydock in his penultimate race for which he now has a 4lb pull. Bizarrely, it was thought that Comply or Die needed a faster surface to show his best, although on the basis of his last 2 runs, it appears he has embraced a softer surface.
Chances: Headgear seems to have transformed this horse. He is 11lb in on the weights and recent form lines suggest he should be a big player. However, it’s going to be tough to reappear after a long slog in the Eider and produce a performance needed to win this one. Also, he has no experience at Aintree.
Tom Taafe’s Slim Pickings is Irelands supposed best representative and also the best representative from the Grand National experienced horses. Last years 3rd behind Silver Birch was a good effort and he has been raised only 7lb since that run. He runs off his true BHB mark and has undoubtedly been aimed all along for this race this season. He has had 2 hurdle races to prep him and to keep his Handicap mark down, such is the general trait for so many National fancies these days, and he almost won one of them, proving that he is plenty sharp enough. Tom Taafe hasn’t had a great season with only an 8% Strike Rate in Ireland and only a 6% Strike Rate in Handicaps. However, there is no denying this horses ability and although none of this seasons races has really told you how much ‘Chasing’ ability this horse has retained over a marathon distance, he is sure to be plenty fresh enough.
Chances: Probably best of the Grand National experienced contenders and has clearly, 100%, been aimed for this race all season. Will stay and will like a bit of juice in the ground. Will attract plenty of support from the Irish contingent and if you back him, it would be worth taking an early price.
John Spearing’s Simon is another coming back for another tilt after last season. Who knows how well Simon would have fared last season before tipping up late on. He was certainly enjoying himself up with the leaders for most of the way before coming down at Valentines the 2nd time around. He didn’t look like he was tiring at that stage and still looked to hold a chance, although that is now purely guesswork. What we can say about Simon is that he has hardly put a foot wrong all this season and has been bang in contention in all of his races bar his fitness seeking reappearance. He has been staying on in all of them. He unseated his rider at Cheltenham in the Cotswold but was right up there in contention just like he was when he tipped up in the National last year. However, he does look to be very one paced and may be found out to anything that has a hint of acceleration if he has company at the lest fence.
Chances: Simon will love any soft underfoot conditions and the signs are that he will stay right to the wire. Will be up with leaders and should avoid the hustle and bustle of any potential carnages. Ultimately though, his jumping is sketchy at times and you will have to hold onto your seat letting him carry your money but chances are, if he stands up, he is a cracking each way bet.
Tom Mullins sends over Chelsea Harbour who is another strongly fancied runner from Ireland. This fellow has some good group form from last season winning a Grade 2 Novice chase at Naas and even took the mighty Denman on in last seasons Sun Alliance, although hopelessly outpaced and outclassed before unseating his rider. He has been around the block this season and the National will be his 10th start of the season. Bearing in mind he was only a novice last season, that’s some mileage and that would worry me a great deal. His form this season doesn’t look anything out of the ordinary.
Chances: I think too many people have over evaluated his eye-catching running on 4th last time out. He was held up in a fast pace and you would expect a National contender to be flying at the end in that kind of race. Too much mileage on the clock this season for me. On the plus side, although he has a few falls in his form, he is actually a decent jumper generally. Has come in for lots of support just recently, but is plenty short enough now.
Lightly campaigned Bewleys Berry is having his 2nd crack at the prize. As a 10 year old, he has only had 17 races in his career and is certainly one that the yard likes to keep fresh. Like Simon, he was always up with the pace in last years race and is another who should avoid any hussle and bussle that occurs in the race. That said, it didn’t help him last year, as again, like Simon, he became a cropper, falling at Bechers the 2nd time around. Bewleys Berry, Like Chelsea Harbour enjoyed keeping the best company in his younger years having ran in 2 top races at the Cheltenham Festival. He bypassed Cheltenham last year for a tilt at this, and does so again this year. Only 2 prep races this season in 2 races he contested last season, the Becher Chase at Aintree and the Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock. In similar fashion, he did brilliantly in the Becher chase again, with a very close up 2nd to Mr Pointment, and poorly in the subsequent Vodka Gold Cup where this season he was pulled up.
It’s almost perfectly conceivable to suggest that he just loves Aintree and despises Haydock.
Chances: Must have as good a chance as Simon has as he was always travelling well within himself in last years race before tipping up. He is generally a sound jumper and has showed his loving for Aintree on at least 2 occasions now. He will not mind the rains, but will definitely not want it too soft.
Last years Irish Grand National winner, Butlers Cabin is taking a crack at his home countries equivalent and why not after a tremendous season last year when also taking home the 4m1f National Hunt Challenge Cup at the Cheltenham festival aswell.
Jonjo O’Neills 8 year old has time on his side and has been lightly campaigned this season compared to his heavy schedule last season. That said though, he has not really sparkled this season with all 3 efforts well below par. This seasons performances have been so far down on his performances last season that it’s a big risk taking him on trust. You can always forgive one bad run and can always make an excuse for 2 bad runs, but rarely can excuse 3 bad runs. Jonjo has had a month and a half to work with his charge and there is no question that if he reproduces last seasons sparkling form, he would be bang in contention here.
Chances: On last seasons form would probably be favourite. However, siding with him after 3 below par runs this season is going to be based purely on trust. Its just very possible that the handicapper has truly nabbed him now and he has not improved enough in comparison to the weight hikes of last seasons performances.
Willie Mullins must have been excited and optimistic about Snowy Mornings future this season after an eye-catching run behind Denman in last seasons Sun Alliance. That optimism was shared by the racing public too as he not only headed the early Grand National ante-post lists, but was also favourite to beat Denman in this seasons Hennessy. Unfortunately, he pulled too hard in that race and paid the price for jumping too freely when crashing out at the 7th fence. He made amends when victorious in his next 2 races over hurdles but since going back over the bigger obstacles, he has disappointed, albeit in good company. He is 8lb in on the official BHB figures. I am of the impression that when his jockey asks some serious questions, he tends to get flustered and panics and this almost always affects his jumping. He is undoubtedly a confidence horse.
Chances: Has mixed it with the best and is 8lb in on official ratings. A classy performer, although still very novicey at his fences. Starts to panic when his rider asks him a question and this almost always leads to jumping mistakes, something he can ill afford at Aintree’s fences. Not guaranteed to stay. Will love the softer going.
Peter Bowens McKelvey was all the rage last season almost landed a good ante-post gamble when just failing to catch Silver Birch. One stride further and he would have been victorious. It was also found that he pulled a tendon during the race and he was given a long lay off. He only made his reappearance early March over hurdles with a non too exciting fitness seeking performance. He ran again 2 weeks later and did not capture anyones imagination of a repeat performance in this years Grand National. Albeit, both those races were over hurdles. That said, he put up a very encouraging performance in a hurdle race last season en-route to the National. The vibes don’t seem good for the horse and its highly possible that he hasn’t recovered from his injury in the race last year.
Chances: Stays and stays but ideally wont want it soft underfoot. Has to prove he is over last years National excursions and has recovered from the injury sustained in the race. Not run a single chase race since and hindered preparations must be a worry.
Of the remaining runners, Mr Pointment is a horse that Paul Nicholls has always considered a National type when he brought him in from Charlie Egertons yard last year. He’s a big burly fellow and is a sound jumper. He done his credentials no harm when beating Bewleys Berry in the Becher Chase at Aintree, but will connections be kicking themselves going for that insignificant Doncaster handicap at the start of March? Considering he goes perfectly well fresh, it was a very strange assignment so close to the National. If he has recovered from them excursions, he has to be a major player, even off 11st11lb. However, there is still a question mark over whether he will stay. Ignore a Paul Nicholls chaser at your peril.
King Johns Castle is a mudlark who will love it if it downpours prior to the race. Although unproven in the stamina department, he is a model of consistency this season with 4 very decent efforts including when winning off a 2 stone lower mark over hurdles last time. His inability to get his head in front on the other 3 chasing races has to be a worry but JP McManus will be hopeful if not upbeat about this one. It is highly likely that this horse has become a National contender by pure chance.
Ever since Point Barrow’s success in the Irish National 2 years ago, he has been talked up for the English equivalent. Indeed, he was made co-favourite for the race last season when all that prep work was destroyed after 20 seconds when he came down at the first fence. He’s 1lb lower this season but has not done anything noteworthy since. He has also had a fairly busy schedule and it could be asking too much for him to figure here. That said, he is bound to have his supporters again.
Old Hedgehunter is making his 5th appearance in the National and its almost like he is part of the furniture now. There was no greater just rewards when he landed the 2005 National after his hard luck story in the 2004 race. Even at the grand old age of 12, he is still 12lb higher than when he won the 2005 race. Surely, that is too much to expect of an ex-champion. However, he will have his loyal supporters who just wont be able to forget that marvellous, fluent victory in 2005.
Philson Run has to be the most lightly raced 12 year old I’ve ever seen. A grand total of 16 races on the clock for this fellow must tell a story of training complications. A gutsy 4th place last season, he is still 1lb higher than last year with age creeping up on him. However, being lighly raced, I’m sure he looks and feels younger than his years suggest. He got very tired towards the end of the race last season and its highly likely that the National distance stretches his limits so therefore, although he wont mind softer conditions, he wont want them too soft.
Knowhere has been running in the highest company and was far from disgraced when 6th in this seasons Cheltenham Gold Cup behind Denman. Prior to that he put up a sensational performance to lift the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham at the back end of January where he beat subsequent Gold Cup 3rd, Neptune Collonges and subsequent Ryanair Chase winner Old Vic. He was an overpriced 100/1 shot in last years race although he unseated his rider early on and was never given a race of it. There is no suggestion he will stay this marathon trip and at less than half the odds of last year, he is probably just about right in the market. How much the Gold Cup has taken out of him remains to be seen but he was given a hard race in that and that could easily go against him. Could be worth a small Each-way squeak if he stays.
Selections
Of course, it’s a tough one, but I was impressed with SIMON’s attitude in the race last year. Although I will have to take it on trust that he stays, he looks to have a perfect profile for this race. He will like the ground whether it’s on the soft side or whether its perfectly good ground. He may be one paced but he will never give up. Ideally I want him jumping the last with a good advantage as anything with a bit of acceleration may tap him for toe. But I am convinced he will stay and fight all the way to the line. He will be out of trouble near the front and it will take a good horse to outstay him.
The one who may do just that is Bewleys Berry. I was very impressed with his Becher Chase run behind Mr Pointment and am convinced he would improve past Mr Pointment the further the trip. He his extremely lightly campaigned and must hold sound chances here. Of the outsiders, Knowhere is the one I really like. He has some solid performances under his belt and although his price is not screaming out value at you, it is conceivable you could get a tasty prices on the exchanges that will make him worth having Each way.
1. Simon 2. Bewleys Berry 3. Knowhere |
