Just one week to go to the nation’s favourite race and you can already hear the sound of pins being sharpened as households up and down the country place their customary yearly bet on the magnificent John Smiths Grand National at Aintree.
But hang on Mrs Smith at no.6 Val Verde drive and silver haired Mr Birch from Nottingham…….. there are better ways than a pin and a sound alike name to help you pick the winner. Just pause for a moment and consider some statistics:
- Only 2 winners in the last 20 years have carried 11 stone or more to victory.
- Only 2 winners in the last 20 years have been less than 9 years old (Bindaree and Party Politics).
- Top trainer Paul Nicholls has a dreadful record in the race, whilst Nigel Twiston Davies stable have had the winner twice in the last 10 years.
- The last grey to win the National was Nicolaus Silver in 1961.
- The last mare to win was Nickel Coin in 1951.
- Look for a horse that has already won a race over at least 3m.
Even by applying these simple stats, you can reduce the field from 40 to less than half that amount. And crucially, you eliminate the current favourite, Cloudy Lane (7-1 with Sportingbet and Betfair, 6-1 generally). Admittedly, when the ante-post favourite is trained by none other than Donald McCain, son of legendary Red Rum trainer, Ginger McCain, you clearly need an iron constitution to do this!
Looking at the odds, 15 of the last 20 years has seen horses win at odds of 20-1 or less. An amazing statistic for a race considered a lottery, don’t you think?
Perusing the ante-post markets now, and applying the above stats to the field, 2 of the most interesting runners left are Comply or Die (12-1 Betfair, 11-1 Totesport and Coral) and Point Barrow (27-1 Betfair, 20-1 generally). Both are interesting horses in that the former is trained by David Pipe and ran away with the Eider Chase at Newcastle and the latter was a well backed 10-1 shot in the race last year, but fell at the 1st.
Cloudy Lane may defy the age stats and win, but would you want to take only 6-1 about a horse that has to run 4 and a half miles and jump 30 fences along with 40 other runners? Thought not!
Or would you want to apply a little bit of science and take a value price?
Or would you just take your Uncle Simon’s advice after all and stick the pin in anyway? Hang on, Simon……. that’s 14-1 with Stan James |
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